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| Durant and Co. will have troubling getting around LeBron and the Heat in the Finals. |
Last season ended how we thought it would. It wasn’t out of our expectations to see Derrick Rose lead the Bulls to the best record in the league. Nor was it odd to see the aging Spurs lead the pack in the West or the Celtics, Heat, Lakers and Thunder round out the six division winners. Many people had these teams pegged as their division winners at the start of the season. But come playoff time it was a whole different story.
The number one seeded Spurs exited in the first round, the Lakers had a tough run-in with the Hornets and were eventually swept by the Mavs and the Orlando Magic had a first round exit at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks. The most surprising team of all, the Memphis Grizzlies, a team that had barely made it into the playoffs, nearly made it to the Western Conference Finals, falling one game short in Game 7 to the Oklahoma City Thunder. By the end of the second round the Lakers, Celtics, Magic and Spurs, teams that had been in the Finals the previous four seasons, were all knocked out of the playoffs.
Last year may have been a bad omen for those teams. This year I expect all four of them to trickle down the standings and seed in the lower half of the bracket. Making room for teams with fresher legs that either kept their core together or made important offseason acquisitions. Teams such as the Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, L.A. Clippers, Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies will be in position again to make some noise come playoff time.
Eastern Conference
Round 1:
(1)Miami Heat vs. (8) Milwaukee Bucks
It took Miami most of last year to work out the kinks in its schemes and they still managed to make the Finals and probably should have won the title. With a year under their belt I think they easily walk away with the number one seed. As for Milwaukee, the Bucks will have a healthy Andrew Bogut to team up with Brandon Jennings and newly acquired Stephen Jackson. That should be enough for them to make it into the playoffs, but it will be an early exit. Miami in 4.
(4) Indiana Pacers vs. (5) Boston Celtics
Indiana is going to make life tough for many teams this year. They feature a great frontcourt in Roy Hibbert, ex-Hornet David West and backup Tyler Hansbrough, a solid set of wing players in Danny Granger and Paul George, and a point guard who can manage the game in Darren Collison. Boston features Rajon Rondo. The rest is becoming fan fodder. Garnett, Pierce and Allen are all still valuable when healthy and at full strength, but by they end of the season I doubt all three of them are in that condition. Plus, the Celtics have nodda when it comes to depth this year. This is the year the Pacers breakout. Pacers in 6.
(3) New York Knicks vs. (6) Atlanta Hawks
The Knicks could be dangerous this season if Tyson Chandler can play defense for all five players on the court at the same time. All joking aside, his presence makes a difference and also makes the Knicks a legit title threat. Atlanta won’t surprise us again like they did last year by pulling the upset. I think the Hawks make their way into the six seed due to a Dwight Howard trade or chemistry collapse in Orlando. Either way, they benefit. Knicks in 5.
(2) Chicago Bulls vs (7) Orlando Magic
Potentially could be a trap series for the Bulls if the Magic wind up keeping Howard and making a solid move at the trade deadline. The season ends on April 26th this year and the trade deadline is March 15th. That would give Orlando just enough time to get things together and make things interesting. The Bulls on the other hand might find themselves a bit over confident after making it to the Conference Finals last year. Still, I think they find a way. Bulls in 7.
Round 2:
(1) Miami Heat vs. (4) Indiana Pacers
This is going to be a tougher series for Miami than anyone will realize until they actually play the first game. The Pacers have a size advantage on Miami that will cause a lot of trouble for LeBron and Wade as it did for Rose in the first round of last year’s playoffs. Talent wins out here though. Miami in 6.
(2) Chicago Bulls vs. (3) New York Knicks
This series will come down to which team controls the tempo of the game. If the Bulls make this about defense, I think New York suffers. If the Knicks are scoring in 5th gear, the Bulls don’t have much of a chance. It will come down to the Tyson Chandler affect. Knicks in 7.
Conference Finals:
(1) Miami Heat vs. (3) New York Knicks
How I would kill for this to become a reality. Conference finals in New York. Wade, LeBron, Melo and Amare feeding off the MSG crowd. Basketball Heaven. The Knicks will have a shot if Chandler can do what he did to Miami in last year’s finals. But Miami will have more determination this time and depth. Miami in 6.
Western Conference
Round 1:
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are going to get banged up this season and struggle to make it to the playoffs. Oklahoma is going to find their stride. This is a reversal of their first round meeting two seasons ago and this time Durant and co. put the dagger in Lakers. Thunder in 6.
(4) Denver Nuggets vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies
Denver managed to instantly rebuild when they traded Melo to the Knicks. Ty Lawson is going to have a breakout season this year. Memphis will be equally as good as they were last season, only this time we will all see it coming. The Mile High magic is the difference maker. Denver in 7.
(3) L.A. Clippers vs. (6) Portland Trailblazers
The Clips are going to easily overthrow the Lakers this season and claim the Pacific crown. The Blazers will manage to effortlessly move past Brandon Roy’s retirement even if Greg Oden doesn’t return. Which gets me to thinking, how good would they be if their franchise wasn’t cursed with bad knees? Clips in 6.
(2) Dallas Mavericks vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs
Despite the personnel changes Dirk and Kidd will find a way to get the Mavs the second seed in the West. Instead of going for the top seed this year I think the aging Spurs save the energy for the playoffs and settle for a lower seed. Age over beauty. Spurs in 6.
Round 2:
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (4) Denver Nuggets
This would be a great series to watch. A repeat matchup of the first round from last season, both teams are young and on the rise. Another year under their belts should make this one interesting. Denver can battle. Thunder in 6.
(3) L.A. Clippers vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs will be able to use their basketball IQ to sneak around the Mavs in the first round, but in the second they will run into a physical juggernaut in the Clippers. Paul, Blake and Jordan will be too much for Duncan and co. to handle. Clips in 6.
Conference Finals:
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (3) L.A. Clippers
The Clippers picked up Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups and Caron Butler this offseason. I think we learned from Miami last year that these things take time. On the other side of the court, the Thunder were one step away from making it to the Finals last season. This year they make it happen. Thunder in 7.
NBA Finals
(1) Miami Heat vs. (1) Oklahoma City Thunder
I expect both of these teams to be at the top of the league for most of the next decade. I won’t be surprised if this is the first of many Finals matchups between the two. The next stage will prove to be too much for Durant and Westbrook the first time around. In year two though, I think Miami gets it done with the Big 3. Miami in 6.
