Friday, December 23, 2011

Fantasy Guide: Power Forwards

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Expect Blake to keep doing Blake things this year. 


            In fantasy terms the power forward position has always been somewhat of a conundrum.  Most power forwards aren’t the best at accruing assists and they don’t necessarily bring in the 10-plus boards we expect from a solid center. Suddenly that has changed. Now the position boasts a handful of players who can drop 20 points, 10 boards and 3-4 assists a night. Make sure you grab at least one of these guys for your team.

Superstars-

Dirk Nowitzki-  Dirk is coming off of his first finals victory, but because of the lockout the Mavs don’t seem to have much of a target on their back. Assuming he can stay healthy through this gauntlet of a season, I say the lack of attention motivates Dirk towards another MVP-like season.
Blake Griffin- A serious threat for the MVP and regardless of that fact, he is playing along Chris Paul this year. Blake is also sneaky good at dishing out assists.
Kevin Love- Love broke out last year and wound up leading the league in rebounds. He’s still young and in great shape. Towards the end of the season he will be running circles around the vets in the league. Oh, and with Rubio finally showing up in Minny, there may be something special brewing.
LaMarcus Aldridge- After Brandon Roy went down last year, Aldridge went off. This year he could be a potential MVP candidate. He’s a solid 20-10 guy on a fun Blazers team.

Automatics-

Pau Gasol- Age is going to start slowing Pau down sooner or later and some believe it already has. Something about the Lakers also seem off to me this season and I think that effects his production. That being said, he’s still going to have a solid season.
Amare Stoudemire- Amare started last season on fire and was looking like a top candidate for MVP. Then his production tailed off a bit and Carmelo showed up. In the up-tempo Knicks offense though he is still going to have a great year.
Davis Lee- Perhaps he is a bit overpaid in Golden State but he is still going to drop 17 and 10 each night.
Zach Randolph- Randolph has been a 20-10 guy for years now and for some reason is perennially underrated because of his past attitude issues. He went off in the playoffs this year and now he should be a hot pickup.

Breakouts/Fantasy Grenades-

Chris Bosh- I say Bosh is a candidate for a slight breakout and being a fantasy grenade. He won’t ever return to his Toronto form while playing alongside LeBron and Wade, but I expect him to get back to grabbing 10-boards a night and occasionally going off for 30-40 points.
Josh Smith- Smith is a stat-sheet filler who could be poised for a leap this year. At the least your getting 18 and 9 coupled with 3-4 assists and 2 blocks a game.
Serge Ibaka- If Ibaka breaks out this year the league better watch out for the Thunder. I think he is going to break out.
Emeka Okafor- Okafor went from being a disappointment to being a solid role player. Now with Chris Paul being traded out of New Orleans there is a void to fill. He could have his best season yet.
Andre Blatche- I would not want Blatche if I were running a real life basketball team, but for some reason, Blatche is a fantasy beast from time to time. This year I think that becomes more consistent and he has his best season yet.

Mr. Consistent-

Kevin Garnett- Age has definitely slowed KG down. If he can stay healthy you can expect 17-8 from him every night.
Tim Duncan- The greatest power forward of all-time saw a major drop in production last season. This year I think we can expect exactly what we saw out of Duncan last year.
Paul Millsap- A couple of years ago Millsap got a chance to play quality minutes for the Jazz and worked his way into a starting job. Now he is a solid 17-8 guy.
Elton Brand- He is a shell of his younger self, but still a solid 15-8 player.
Luis Scola- An underrated player year in and year out. An 18-8 guy who throws in a couple of assists a night too.
Carlos Boozer- I’m not much of a Boozer fan and after his performance in the Conference Finals last year I doubt many Chicago fans are either. If he stays healthy and builds more chemistry with D-Rose he could return to his 20-10 form, but realistically I see him at 17-8.
David West- Coming off ACL surgery, West is a bit of a mystery. We will shortly learn how well he responds and if he can hold up. That being said, the Pacers are only asking him to be their number 2 or 3 guy, making West a consistent fantasy producer.

Purgatory-

Tyrus Thomas/Boris Diaw- Charlotte is becoming a joke and hardly resembles a basketball team. When Tyrus gets minutes he can produce, but for some reason doesn’t get a lot of minutes with the Bobcats. Boris Diaw can fill the stat sheet, but he is playing on the Bobcats and might wind up being their starting center. Oy vey.
JJ Hickson- It feels like the Kings have about 50 players on their team who are all capable of having fantasy-relevant seasons. The only problem is that there just aren’t enough minutes for all of these players. Hickson will only be as productive as the amount of minutes he is given.
Charlie Villanueva- Three years ago Charlie went 16 and 6 and was a decent fantasy option. Since he has moved to Detroit he has been a disappointment. We will see what we get out of him this year.
Antawn Jamison- Even though he probably has something left in the tank and he had solid numbers last year, Jamison is still playing for the basketball team formerly known as the LeBrons. He could be due for a very bad year.
Chris Kaman- He just got traded to New Orleans in the Chris Paul deal and usually does exactly the opposite of what you expect of him. I expected him to stay in all-star form last year and he did not. I now expect him to fill a void in New Orleans and have a quality year. Which probably means he will not.
Carl Landry- Landry is a solid glue guy who can go for 10-15 points a night. A few years ago he was in reach of 20 a game. Now he is in New Orleans on a team lacking any identity. Who knows what we will get.

Too Soon To Tell-

Udonis Haslem- Haslem is a beast of a player and more of a role player on a stacked Heat team. He is going to get minutes but I feel uncertain about what exactly we should expect from him statistically this year.
Glen Davis/Ryan Anderson- Both of these guys could experience a garbage-time season and put up some unrealistically awesome fantasy numbers if Dwight Howard gets traded mid-season. If he doesn’t get traded they stay right where they were last year.

Mid-Season Upside-

Tristan Thompson- I don’t think Thompson produces right out the gate, but after he gets a month or two under his belt, we will see if he was worth the fourth overall pick in the draft.
Kenneth Faried- Faried will be fighting for minutes this season. He will be a special player one day, just maybe not this season.
Al-Farouq Aminu- Unfortunately for Aminu he got traded out of playing with Blake Griffin. But fortunately this may result in more minutes and a chance for him to turn into something special. It may take him a bit to get going, but if he finds a groove mid-season he is going to be good.
Ed Davis- Davis had a decent rookie campaign last year. He needs to get more minutes though and as the season goes on I expect the Raptors to unleash him a bit more.
Derrick Favors- I don’t really trust Favors to prove his 3rd-pick worthiness and it certainly won’t happen this year. But, come mid-season he may start to produce stats that could validate a spot for him on your fantasy team.
Tyler Hansbrough- Psycho Ty improved last year from his rookie campaign. He is on a fun, upstart Pacers team and could earn himself enough minutes to become a 15-7 player.
Taj Gibson- Gibson saw a dip in minutes last year and it caused his numbers to drop too. If he can steal minutes from Boozer and Noah he could breech 10 points per game and grab a few more boards than last year. It’s going to take him half the year to prove he is worth it though.
Brandon Bass- He just got traded to the Celtics and is going to see quality minutes. I saw it takes him a bit to gel with the group and by mid-season could be a 15-6 player.
Reggie Williams- Williams lost minutes last season after having a very impressive rookie campaign. If he can earn those minutes back by mid-season he will be a beast.
Jonas Jerebko- Jerebko had a decent season last year and is playing on a rebuilding Pistons team. If he can find the minutes he could become a valuable 3rd or 4th forward on your fantasy team.

Mid-Season Downside-

Al Harrington- Harrington saw a major drop in production last year and is slated to see another drop as his younger counterparts steal minutes from him and his teammates trapped in China return.
Drew Gooden- I don’t trust Gooden that much and I think the gauntlet season is going to do him in at some point.
Amir Johnson- Johnson will lose minutes to Ed Davis as the season moves on, simply for the fact that Ed Davis has potential and Johnson is overpaid.

Washed Up-

Johan Petro- Never was any good to begin with and doesn’t look to be getting better any time soon. 

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