2011-12 Playoff Predictions

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Season Preview

MVP Predictions

Durant and Co. will have troubling getting around LeBron and the Heat in the Finals.

           Last season ended how we thought it would. It wasn’t out of our expectations to see Derrick Rose lead the Bulls to the best record in the league. Nor was it odd to see the aging Spurs lead the pack in the West or the Celtics, Heat, Lakers and Thunder round out the six division winners. Many people had these teams pegged as their division winners at the start of the season. But come playoff time it was a whole different story.

            The number one seeded Spurs exited in the first round, the Lakers had a tough run-in with the Hornets and were eventually swept by the Mavs and the Orlando Magic had a first round exit at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks. The most surprising team of all, the Memphis Grizzlies, a team that had barely made it into the playoffs, nearly made it to the Western Conference Finals, falling one game short in Game 7 to the Oklahoma City Thunder. By the end of the second round the Lakers, Celtics, Magic and Spurs, teams that had been in the Finals the previous four seasons, were all knocked out of the playoffs.

            Last year may have been a bad omen for those teams. This year I expect all four of them to trickle down the standings and seed in the lower half of the bracket. Making room for teams with fresher legs that either kept their core together or made important offseason acquisitions. Teams such as the Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, L.A. Clippers, Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies will be in position again to make some noise come playoff time.

Eastern Conference

Round 1:

(1)Miami Heat vs. (8) Milwaukee Bucks

            It took Miami most of last year to work out the kinks in its schemes and they still managed to make the Finals and probably should have won the title. With a year under their belt I think they easily walk away with the number one seed. As for Milwaukee, the Bucks will have a healthy Andrew Bogut to team up with Brandon Jennings and newly acquired Stephen Jackson. That should be enough for them to make it into the playoffs, but it will be an early exit. Miami in 4.

(4) Indiana Pacers vs. (5) Boston Celtics

            Indiana is going to make life tough for many teams this year. They feature a great frontcourt in Roy Hibbert, ex-Hornet David West and backup Tyler Hansbrough, a solid set of wing players in Danny Granger and Paul George, and a point guard who can manage the game in Darren Collison. Boston features Rajon Rondo. The rest is becoming fan fodder. Garnett, Pierce and Allen are all still valuable when healthy and at full strength, but by they end of the season I doubt all three of them are in that condition. Plus, the Celtics have nodda when it comes to depth this year. This is the year the Pacers breakout. Pacers in 6.

(3) New York Knicks vs. (6) Atlanta Hawks

            The Knicks could be dangerous this season if Tyson Chandler can play defense for all five players on the court at the same time. All joking aside, his presence makes a difference and also makes the Knicks a legit title threat. Atlanta won’t surprise us again like they did last year by pulling the upset. I think the Hawks make their way into the six seed due to a Dwight Howard trade or chemistry collapse in Orlando. Either way, they benefit. Knicks in 5.

(2) Chicago Bulls vs (7) Orlando Magic

            Potentially could be a trap series for the Bulls if the Magic wind up keeping Howard and making a solid move at the trade deadline. The season ends on April 26^th this year and the trade deadline is March 15^th. That would give Orlando just enough time to get things together and make things interesting. The Bulls on the other hand might find themselves a bit over confident after making it to the Conference Finals last year. Still, I think they find a way. Bulls in 7.

Round 2:

(1) Miami Heat vs. (4) Indiana Pacers

            This is going to be a tougher series for Miami than anyone will realize until they actually play the first game. The Pacers have a size advantage on Miami that will cause a lot of trouble for LeBron and Wade as it did for Rose in the first round of last year’s playoffs. Talent wins out here though. Miami in 6.

(2) Chicago Bulls vs. (3) New York Knicks

            This series will come down to which team controls the tempo of the game. If the Bulls make this about defense, I think New York suffers. If the Knicks are scoring in 5^th gear, the Bulls don’t have much of a chance. It will come down to the Tyson Chandler affect. Knicks in 7.

Conference Finals:

(1) Miami Heat vs. (3) New York Knicks

            How I would kill for this to become a reality. Conference finals in New York. Wade, LeBron, Melo and Amare feeding off the MSG crowd. Basketball Heaven. The Knicks will have a shot if Chandler can do what he did to Miami in last year’s finals. But Miami will have more determination this time and depth. Miami in 6.

Western Conference

Round 1:

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) L.A. Lakers

            The Lakers are going to get banged up this season and struggle to make it to the playoffs. Oklahoma is going to find their stride. This is a reversal of their first round meeting two seasons ago and this time Durant and co. put the dagger in Lakers. Thunder in 6.

(4) Denver Nuggets vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies

            Denver managed to instantly rebuild when they traded Melo to the Knicks. Ty Lawson is going to have a breakout season this year. Memphis will be equally as good as they were last season, only this time we will all see it coming. The Mile High magic is the difference maker. Denver in 7.

(3) L.A. Clippers vs. (6) Portland Trailblazers

            The Clips are going to easily overthrow the Lakers this season and claim the Pacific crown. The Blazers will manage to effortlessly move past Brandon Roy’s retirement even if Greg Oden doesn’t return. Which gets me to thinking, how good would they be if their franchise wasn’t cursed with bad knees? Clips in 6.

(2) Dallas Mavericks vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs

            Despite the personnel changes Dirk and Kidd will find a way to get the Mavs the second seed in the West. Instead of going for the top seed this year I think the aging Spurs save the energy for the playoffs and settle for a lower seed. Age over beauty. Spurs in 6.

Round 2:

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (4) Denver Nuggets

            This would be a great series to watch. A repeat matchup of the first round from last season, both teams are young and on the rise. Another year under their belts should make this one interesting. Denver can battle. Thunder in 6.

(3) L.A. Clippers vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs

            The Spurs will be able to use their basketball IQ to sneak around the Mavs in the first round, but in the second they will run into a physical juggernaut in the Clippers. Paul, Blake and Jordan will be too much for Duncan and co. to handle. Clips in 6.

Conference Finals:

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (3) L.A. Clippers

            The Clippers picked up Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups and Caron Butler this offseason. I think we learned from Miami last year that these things take time. On the other side of the court, the Thunder were one step away from making it to the Finals last season. This year they make it happen. Thunder in 7.

NBA Finals

(1) Miami Heat vs. (1) Oklahoma City Thunder

            I expect both of these teams to be at the top of the league for most of the next decade. I won’t be surprised if this is the first of many Finals matchups between the two. The next stage will prove to be too much for Durant and Westbrook the first time around. In year two though, I think Miami gets it done with the Big 3. Miami in 6.

Fantasy Guide: Centers

Check out the Fantasy Primer

Part 1: Point Guards

Part 2: Shooting Guards

Part 3: Small Forwards

Part 4: Power Forwards

Superman is going to have company this season.

      You can throw your idea of a “true” center out the window. For the past several years the NBA has seen a surge in more athletic big men who are less defensive stoppers and more of an all-around player. I think this year though we begin to see a shift back toward the days of yore where a center meant a block party and 10-15 boards a night.

Superstars-

Dwight Howard- Almost a lock for Defensive Player of the Year every year, D12 is going to be a force no matter where he plays. He had his best season yet last year and still has room to improve.

Automatics-

Al Horford- I think this is the year Al creeps over 10 boards a night and has the potential to turn into a 20-10 guy. You’re at least getting 15-10 from him though. A solid young player.

Joakim Noah- Noah dealt with some injuries last season but was still averaged a double-double. There is a chance he has met his ceiling, but I think he still has room to grow.

Andrew Bynum- Bynum is going to have to step up this season with Lamar Odom heading to Dallas. As it goes every year, as long as the young fella can stay healthy.

Andrea Bargani- Bargani is a scoring machine and has improved his offensive production each season in the league. Last year he dropped 21 a game. Now if only he could learn how to rebound and block a shot.

Al Jefferson- Big Al played a full 82 games last season. I expect him to return to his 20-10 form and with 2 blocks a game, you can’t go wrong.

Breakouts/Fantasy Grenades-

Roy Hibbert- Hibbs had his best season yet last year and has improved every season in the league. I think this year he makes a major jump on an exciting Pacers team.

DeMarcus Cousins- Full of talent, but also full of attitude. If he can mature he is going to turn into a beast. He can score, board and pass. He complete package.

Marcin Gortat- Gortat was barely doing anything in Orlando playing behind Dwight Howard. Then, mid-season, he got traded to Phoenix and went off. I think the he is due to breakout big this year and could easily go 15-10 with a block or two a game.

Marc Gasol- The other Gasol made a name for himself in last years playoffs and it turned into a big payday. I trust Gasol to not only continue improving despite not being in a contract year, but I think he can become one of the leagues best centers right behind D12.

Serge Ibaka- The Thunder just know how to draft. Ibaka is going to have a monster season, earning a starting role and could easily go for 15-10 and 3 blocks a game.

JaVale McGee- JaVale took it up a notch last year averaging 10 points, 8 boards and 2 blocks a game. Playing alongside John Wall I imagine McGee to take it to another level, averaging a solid double-double and 3 blocks a game.

DeAndre Jordan- The Clips wisely resigned Jordan. Playing alongside Chris Paul is going to do wonders for this young big man. I think this year he makes a big leap and averages a double-double and two blocks a game.

Greg Monroe- As Monroe saw more playing time last year he also saw his production rise. This year he is going to have the starting role on a rebuilding Pistons team. He will be good for 15 and 10 this year.

Brook Lopez- (see mid-season upside)

Mr. Consistent-

Anderson Varejao- Varejao is a double-double candidate and should still have a large role on a rebuilding Cavs team.

Nene- Nene has reached his ceiling at 15-7. That’s pretty good.

Andrew Bogut- The Aussie does a little bit of everything. He averaged 12-12-2-2.5 last season and I expect the same from him this year.

Tyson Chandler- A crucial piece to the Mavs title run last year has now found his way to the fast paced Knicks. He is expected to play a similar role. Even in the high octane offense, I expect him to stay steady at 10-10.

Purgatory-

Jordan Hill- Due to the botched Pau Gasol trade Hill is going to get valuable minutes in Houston at the center position. The question is, can the young big man produce with the added minutes?

Chuck Hayes-  As with most of the players in Sacramento, there just aren’t enough minutes to go around. With the alleged heart condition and the stacked frontcourt, it’s hard to tell how many minutes Hayes will receive.

Andris Biedrins- Three years ago Biedrins averaged a double-double. Since then he has fallen off quite a bit. He is still capable of producing, but it’s uncertain if he will.

Spencer Hawes- Hawes was turning into a promising young big in Sacramento and then got sent to Philadelphia and took a step back last season. It could have been an adjustment period or a real sign that he just isn’t the full package.

Too Soon To Tell-

Kawme Brown- The former number one pick had one of his best seasons of his career last year and now finds himself on a fast paced Golden State team. At 29, he could score 15 a game in this offense. But if history holds, he will disappoint again.

Samuel Dalembert- Dalembert has finally found a home in Houston after becoming a free agent. The rockets may decide to play their young guys as they find themselves in a rebuilding process after the Gasol trade fell through.

Kendrick Perkins/Nazr Mohammed- The Thunder went and picked up both these big men via trades last year in order to add some much need size to their young core. With Ibaka taking a larger chunk of minutes both of these players may become irrelevant.

Darko Milicic-  Most likely still considered a bust by most due to where he was drafter, Darko looked fairly comfortable in Minnesota last season and that turned into a productive season. There is a chance he can improve even more this season playing next to Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio.

DeJuan Blair/Tiago Splitter- The Spurs are one of the best managed teams in sports. With Tim Duncan aging one of these young big men are going to step up and deliver a solid season. I’m just not sure which one.

Mid-Season Upside-

Bismack Biyombo- Bismack has a fun name to say. Hopefully he can develop quickly and become a fun player to watch. A ton of raw talent.

Eddy Curry­- Curry has the potential to fill a large need for the Heat this year. The question is if he is in shape or not.

Greg Oden- The Blazers are sticking it out with the former number one pick. We’ve seen glimpses, but can he stay healthy.

Mehmet Okur- He will now rejoin Deron Williams in New Jersey. Will he rejoin his former skills as a basketball player as well? The minutes are certainly there.

Enes Kanter- If the Jazz are smart they will play their young guys. As the season moves on Kanter should gain very valuable minutes.

Brook Lopez- He scored 20 a game last year but forgot how to rebound. More recently he suffered an injury that will put him out 6-8 weeks. Hopefully he can come back strong when he is fully healed.

Mid-Season Downside-

Marcus Camby- The season won’t treat Camby well and if Oden makes a return there will be a big drop in the veteran’s production.

Washed Up-

Jermaine O’Neil/Chris Wilcox- Boston would come out really lucky if both of these guys return to being half the players they used to be. I doubt it happens though.

Brendan Haywood- Haywood lost a lot of minutes to Tyson Chandler last season. He lost those minutes for a reason. Don’t expect much.

Ben Wallace- It’s time for the former DPOY to call it quits.

Joel Anthony- He does certain things that the Heat need him to do. He will do nothing you need him to do on your fantasy team.

Ronny Turiaf- Even though he was never really much of a fantasy presence, he is now in Washington to serve as a mentor to a young team. 

Fantasy Guide: Power Forwards

Check out the Fantasy Primer

Part 1: Point Guards

Part 2: Shooting Guards

Part 3: Small Forwards
Part 5: Centers

Expect Blake to keep doing Blake things this year. 

            In fantasy terms the power forward position has always been somewhat of a conundrum.  Most power forwards aren’t the best at accruing assists and they don’t necessarily bring in the 10-plus boards we expect from a solid center. Suddenly that has changed. Now the position boasts a handful of players who can drop 20 points, 10 boards and 3-4 assists a night. Make sure you grab at least one of these guys for your team.

Superstars-

Dirk Nowitzki-  Dirk is coming off of his first finals victory, but because of the lockout the Mavs don’t seem to have much of a target on their back. Assuming he can stay healthy through this gauntlet of a season, I say the lack of attention motivates Dirk towards another MVP-like season.

Blake Griffin- A serious threat for the MVP and regardless of that fact, he is playing along Chris Paul this year. Blake is also sneaky good at dishing out assists.

Kevin Love- Love broke out last year and wound up leading the league in rebounds. He’s still young and in great shape. Towards the end of the season he will be running circles around the vets in the league. Oh, and with Rubio finally showing up in Minny, there may be something special brewing.

LaMarcus Aldridge- After Brandon Roy went down last year, Aldridge went off. This year he could be a potential MVP candidate. He’s a solid 20-10 guy on a fun Blazers team.

Automatics-

Pau Gasol- Age is going to start slowing Pau down sooner or later and some believe it already has. Something about the Lakers also seem off to me this season and I think that effects his production. That being said, he’s still going to have a solid season.

Amare Stoudemire- Amare started last season on fire and was looking like a top candidate for MVP. Then his production tailed off a bit and Carmelo showed up. In the up-tempo Knicks offense though he is still going to have a great year.

Davis Lee- Perhaps he is a bit overpaid in Golden State but he is still going to drop 17 and 10 each night.

Zach Randolph- Randolph has been a 20-10 guy for years now and for some reason is perennially underrated because of his past attitude issues. He went off in the playoffs this year and now he should be a hot pickup.

Breakouts/Fantasy Grenades-

Chris Bosh- I say Bosh is a candidate for a slight breakout and being a fantasy grenade. He won’t ever return to his Toronto form while playing alongside LeBron and Wade, but I expect him to get back to grabbing 10-boards a night and occasionally going off for 30-40 points.

Josh Smith- Smith is a stat-sheet filler who could be poised for a leap this year. At the least your getting 18 and 9 coupled with 3-4 assists and 2 blocks a game.

Serge Ibaka- If Ibaka breaks out this year the league better watch out for the Thunder. I think he is going to break out.

Emeka Okafor- Okafor went from being a disappointment to being a solid role player. Now with Chris Paul being traded out of New Orleans there is a void to fill. He could have his best season yet.

Andre Blatche- I would not want Blatche if I were running a real life basketball team, but for some reason, Blatche is a fantasy beast from time to time. This year I think that becomes more consistent and he has his best season yet.

Mr. Consistent-

Kevin Garnett- Age has definitely slowed KG down. If he can stay healthy you can expect 17-8 from him every night.

Tim Duncan- The greatest power forward of all-time saw a major drop in production last season. This year I think we can expect exactly what we saw out of Duncan last year.

Paul Millsap- A couple of years ago Millsap got a chance to play quality minutes for the Jazz and worked his way into a starting job. Now he is a solid 17-8 guy.

Elton Brand- He is a shell of his younger self, but still a solid 15-8 player.

Luis Scola- An underrated player year in and year out. An 18-8 guy who throws in a couple of assists a night too.

Carlos Boozer- I’m not much of a Boozer fan and after his performance in the Conference Finals last year I doubt many Chicago fans are either. If he stays healthy and builds more chemistry with D-Rose he could return to his 20-10 form, but realistically I see him at 17-8.

David West- Coming off ACL surgery, West is a bit of a mystery. We will shortly learn how well he responds and if he can hold up. That being said, the Pacers are only asking him to be their number 2 or 3 guy, making West a consistent fantasy producer.

Purgatory-

Tyrus Thomas/Boris Diaw- Charlotte is becoming a joke and hardly resembles a basketball team. When Tyrus gets minutes he can produce, but for some reason doesn’t get a lot of minutes with the Bobcats. Boris Diaw can fill the stat sheet, but he is playing on the Bobcats and might wind up being their starting center. Oy vey.

JJ Hickson- It feels like the Kings have about 50 players on their team who are all capable of having fantasy-relevant seasons. The only problem is that there just aren’t enough minutes for all of these players. Hickson will only be as productive as the amount of minutes he is given.

Charlie Villanueva- Three years ago Charlie went 16 and 6 and was a decent fantasy option. Since he has moved to Detroit he has been a disappointment. We will see what we get out of him this year.

Antawn Jamison- Even though he probably has something left in the tank and he had solid numbers last year, Jamison is still playing for the basketball team formerly known as the LeBrons. He could be due for a very bad year.

Chris Kaman- He just got traded to New Orleans in the Chris Paul deal and usually does exactly the opposite of what you expect of him. I expected him to stay in all-star form last year and he did not. I now expect him to fill a void in New Orleans and have a quality year. Which probably means he will not.

Carl Landry- Landry is a solid glue guy who can go for 10-15 points a night. A few years ago he was in reach of 20 a game. Now he is in New Orleans on a team lacking any identity. Who knows what we will get.

Too Soon To Tell-

Udonis Haslem- Haslem is a beast of a player and more of a role player on a stacked Heat team. He is going to get minutes but I feel uncertain about what exactly we should expect from him statistically this year.

Glen Davis/Ryan Anderson- Both of these guys could experience a garbage-time season and put up some unrealistically awesome fantasy numbers if Dwight Howard gets traded mid-season. If he doesn’t get traded they stay right where they were last year.

Mid-Season Upside-

Tristan Thompson- I don’t think Thompson produces right out the gate, but after he gets a month or two under his belt, we will see if he was worth the fourth overall pick in the draft.

Kenneth Faried- Faried will be fighting for minutes this season. He will be a special player one day, just maybe not this season.

Al-Farouq Aminu- Unfortunately for Aminu he got traded out of playing with Blake Griffin. But fortunately this may result in more minutes and a chance for him to turn into something special. It may take him a bit to get going, but if he finds a groove mid-season he is going to be good.

Ed Davis- Davis had a decent rookie campaign last year. He needs to get more minutes though and as the season goes on I expect the Raptors to unleash him a bit more.

Derrick Favors- I don’t really trust Favors to prove his 3^rd-pick worthiness and it certainly won’t happen this year. But, come mid-season he may start to produce stats that could validate a spot for him on your fantasy team.

Tyler Hansbrough- Psycho Ty improved last year from his rookie campaign. He is on a fun, upstart Pacers team and could earn himself enough minutes to become a 15-7 player.

Taj Gibson- Gibson saw a dip in minutes last year and it caused his numbers to drop too. If he can steal minutes from Boozer and Noah he could breech 10 points per game and grab a few more boards than last year. It’s going to take him half the year to prove he is worth it though.

Brandon Bass- He just got traded to the Celtics and is going to see quality minutes. I saw it takes him a bit to gel with the group and by mid-season could be a 15-6 player.

Reggie Williams- Williams lost minutes last season after having a very impressive rookie campaign. If he can earn those minutes back by mid-season he will be a beast.

Jonas Jerebko- Jerebko had a decent season last year and is playing on a rebuilding Pistons team. If he can find the minutes he could become a valuable 3^rd or 4^th forward on your fantasy team.

Mid-Season Downside-

Al Harrington- Harrington saw a major drop in production last year and is slated to see another drop as his younger counterparts steal minutes from him and his teammates trapped in China return.

Drew Gooden- I don’t trust Gooden that much and I think the gauntlet season is going to do him in at some point.

Amir Johnson- Johnson will lose minutes to Ed Davis as the season moves on, simply for the fact that Ed Davis has potential and Johnson is overpaid.

Washed Up-

Johan Petro- Never was any good to begin with and doesn’t look to be getting better any time soon. 

Fantasy Guide: Small Forwards

Check out the Fantasy Primer

Part 1: Point Guards

Part 2: Shooting Guards

Part 4: Power Forwards

Part 5: Centers

Something tells me we get this LeBron back this year.

The small forward position is currently home to a handful of stat sheet fillers. Players who score, rebound, and dole out a healthy amount of assists. I recommend you grab a few of these guys for your team. There are the obvious studs, such as LeBron, Carmelo and Durant, but there is also Andre Iguodala, who went 14-6-6 last year. Most people focused on the scoring dip Iguodala had, dropping from 17 a game down to 14, when we actually expected a jump up to 20. But, with 6 assists and 6 boards a night, you can’t go wrong, even if he scores in the teens again.

Superstars-

LeBron James- Even with the transitional issues of teaming up with Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh last year, LeBron still was able to put together an MVP like season going 26-7-7. With a year under their belt, I say the Heat stars find a way to excel at another level. LeBron could easily go for 30-8-8 this year and regain the MVP.

Carmelo Anthony- In the D’Antoni system almost anyone can thrive. Carmelo is already considered one of the purest scorers in the game. I expect a slight jump in his already impressive numbers this year.

Kevin Durant- He keeps getting better every year and has led the league in scoring the past two years. I won’t be surprised to see him lead the league again and make a run at his first MVP award.

Automatics-

Rudy Gay- Gay was having a great season last year until an injury cut his season short. He got to sit on the bench as he watched his teammates beat the number one seed Spurs and push the Thunder to a Game 7 in the second round. I expect him to be hungry this year.

Danny Granger- All of the sudden Granger is surrounded by a strong supported cast in Indiana. This team is going to be dangerous and I expect all of Granger’s numbers to jump slightly.

Paul Pierce- He no longer averages as many points as he did earlier in his career, but he is far from washed up. You can still expect him to score in the upper teens every night and as with most prolific scorers, as the scoring drops off some, the boards and assists usually rise. That’s good news for fantasy owners.

Breakouts/Fantasy Grenades-

Danilo Gallinari- Gallinari was traded out of the high scoring D’Antoni system last year, but now he is a centerpiece in the Denver rebuilding process. I won’t be surprised to see him start scoring in the low 20’s this season.

Dorell Wright- Wright was finally given the proper minutes and it paid off for the Warriors. One might say last year was his breakout year, but something tells me his ceiling could be even higher and he has an even larger breakout this year. Especially if Monta Ellis is traded at some point.

Stephen Jackson- Jackson could easily be considered an automatic, but he has found a new home in Milwaukee and age will be an issue sooner than later. I don’t expect his numbers to drop off too much, but I see him more of a Fantasy Grenade this year. He’ll have a dozen or so games where his numbers are LeBron-esque.

Michael Beasley- He has maturity issues. He has a GM who is collecting point guards and small forwards. He also has game. I don’t care if the wolves took Derrick Williams at number 2; Beasley is going to explode this year.

Mr. Consistent-

Luol Deng- For the past couple of seasons Deng has scored 17 points and grab a few boards. So this year I expect him to show up, score 17 points and grab a few boards.

Andre Iguodala- I mentioned Iggy in the intro paragraph to this section, but for those of you who jumped down, I expect a consistent 15-6-6 night in and night out from the guy. I doubt we’ll see many 30-point games from him this year but it won’t matter much when he’s bringing in all those assists and boards.

Grant Hill- The training staff in Phoenix has added a few years to Hill’s career. He is also playing alongside Steve Nash, another aging star who seems to refuse to lose a step. Expect Hill to score in the teens again with three to four assists and five or four boards a night.

Gerald Wallace- Wallace’s presence in Portland is overshadowed by LaMarcus Aldridge. This might be a good thing. Wallace is a double-double candidate and though he isn’t going to win your league for you, he can be a valuable addition to your fantasy team.

Caron Butler- He’s coming off an injury, but he also just landed in Lob City, teamed next to Paul and Griffin. I think we can expect to do the same thing he has done his whole career. Score 15-20 points a night.

Andrei Kirilenko- AK47 has been as about as consistent a player throughout his career as one can be. A true stat sheet stuffer, he does it all. It looks like he’ll be landing in New Jersey to pair up with his old teammate Deron Williams and the new Russian owner. I say that’s a good thing.

Purgatory-

Corey Maggette- Last year Maggette saw a huge drop off in points dipping from 19 to 12 per game. He also now finds himself in Charlotte with a young group of players. There is a chance he can return to his old form but it’s really only just a chance.

Trevor Ariza- Ariza averaged 14 points per game two years ago and last year saw a bit of a dip. With both Chris Paul and David West now gone, he has the ability to become the Hornets’ second scoring option behind Eric Gordon. This is probably not a good thing for the Hornets, but a good thing for anyone owning Trevor Ariza.

Shawn Marion/Lamar Odom- The Mavs just picked up Odom for just about nothing and out of the two of them I think Odom has more in the tank. The problem is going to be how much playing time each of them will get.

Thaddeus Young- Young has been stuck in neutral for the past two seasons after appearing to break out three years ago when he averaged a career high 15 points per game. He is still only 23, but I question how much more of a ceiling he has.

John Salmons- When he gets enough opportunities Salmons is capable of going for 20 a night. But like many players in Sacramento, it’s hard to judge how many minutes he will get.

Too Soon To Tell-

Omar Casspi- Casspi had a great rookie campaign and then took a slight step back in his sophomore season. Now he finds himself in Cleveland. There should be plenty of playing time for the third year player. Can he take advantage of it?

Jared Dudley- Dudley had his best year yet last season in Phoenix. If he can land the starting role and get a few more minutes a game, he could be good for 15 a night. Could be. I use caution because last year was the first year he broke 10 per game. He could easily fall back below into fantasy irrelevancy.

Wesley Johnson- It’s too bad Wesley isn’t a center or a shooting guard because Minnesota is overloaded at point guard, small forward and power forward. He had a decent rookie campaign, but with so many players in his way, it’s hard to tell how much time he’ll get and if he will be able to improve at all.

Rashard Lewis- The Wiz Kids didn’t amnesty Lewis because it would have forced them to spend money in order to meet the salary cap minimum once they got rid of him. He still remains the most overpaid player in the league and I expect another lackluster performance. But if for some reason he returns to his old form he could be very valuable.

Josh Howard- Howard has been struggling with injuries the past two years and now finds himself playing for a rebuilding Utah. If he can stay healthy he will get minutes and hopefully return to the 18 and 6 player he was in Dallas.

Tayshaun Prince- Prince has been one of the most consistent players in the league averaging 14-3-5 for what seems like an eternity. But this year he turns 31 for a rebuilding Pistons team. Age may soon catch up with Tayshaun.

Chase Budinger- The vetoed trade that kept Pau Gasol from coming to Houston is going to help out a couple of young players. Budinger is one of them but something in my gut is uncertain if he is ready to make a leap.

Mid-Season Upside-

Kawhi Leonard- The Spurs traded up to get Leonard but still hung on to Richard Jefferson. I see Kawhi coming off the bench to start the season and then proving his worth come late February.

Linas Kleiza- Linas is recovering from injury and it’s up in the air as to when he comes back. But when he does he’ll find plenty of minutes in Toronto and could be a special mid-season addition to your team.

Jan Vesely- Vesely is going to be a fun young player with great athletic ability. I don’t expect him to produce right away, but come mid-season he may obtain some value.

Wilson Chandler- Chandler is stuck in China at the moment. When he returns he will have great fantasy value as long as he can find minutes in Denver.

Austin Daye- The third year player saw an increase in minutes last year and an increase in production. If the same thing happens this year he could be a valuable third or fourth forward on your team.

Tony Allen- He threw some punches last year mid-way through the season and wound up having a fairly productive second half when OJ Mayo’s minutes were handed over to him. If Mayo gets traded we could see the same thing happen this year.

Derrick Williams- It’s uncertain whether Williams will play at the three or the four. It’s also uncertain where he will find minutes on an oddly constructed Wolves team. Only time will tell.

Mid-Season Downside-

Richard Jefferson- Jefferson has clearly lost his step and it is also pretty clear that the Spurs plan to replace him with Kawhi Leonard.

Hedo Turkoglu- Hedo has fallen off the past couple of years and I expect the trend to continue.

Washed Up-

Marvin Williams- To call him washed up might be unfair considering he was never much of anything to begin with. I would rather trust someone with upside than a disappointment like Williams.

Metta World Peace/Matt Barnes- If you combined the two of these guys for the Lakers you would have a beast. That being said, both players are being used for mainly defensive purposes and should not be expected to have significant fantasy production by any means. 

Fantasy Guide: Shooting Guards

Check out the Fantasy Primer

Part 1: Point Guards
Part 3: Small Forwards
Part 4: Power Forwards
Part 5: Centers

Expect D-Wade to rise above his peers in 2011-12

Shooting Guards

            It's going to be hard to tell what to expect from this years crop of shooting guards. We know we're getting a monster year from Dwayne Wade, that Kobe will lose another step and Joe Johnson will continue to be overpaid. The uncertainty lies in the rest of the class. Will we find out the ceiling of Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans and other budding stars or will they stall for anther year? Much like many of the teams in the league, shooting guards seem to be in a state of transition at the moment. Moving from old to new. 

Superstars-

Dwayne Wade- D. Wade had a great inaugural season next to LeBron and Bosh. With a year under their belts and the drive to win the championship I expect similar, if not better production from the best player at the position.

Automatics-

Kobe Bryant- You may be shocked to see me drop Kobe out of the superstar relm and into the automatics. Father time is going to catch up with the Black Mamba at some point and I say this is the year we really see a drop. All that really means is that he still puts up better numbers than most, just not great ones.

Joe Johnson- Joe Johnson is so overpaid that if I owned the Hawks I might amnesty him. Okay, perhaps that is a little harsh. He won’t put up numbers to back what he is being paid, but you can count on him to drop 18-5-5 every night.

Monta Ellis- An explosive scorer on the trading block. He’s a lock at 25-5-4. Some may think he can rise above that, but even with a change of scenery I think Ellis has peaked, which, from a fantasy standpoint, is perfectly fine.

Eric Gordon- Not this year, but next year I see EG joining Wade as the cream of the crop for shooting guards. The change and scenery gives Gordon the opportunity to be the alpha dog. I say he adjusts fine and goes for 23-4-3, but it takes him a year to flourish and rise to superstardom.

Manu Ginobili- I may be stretching a bit to still include Ginobili in this group, but the dude has a lot of heart. Even with his age creeping higher I expect a slight increase in his production with Tim Duncan losing another step this year.

Breakouts/Fantasy Grenades-

Kevin Martin- K-Mart is not going to have any sort of breakout, but rest assured he is a nightly candidate to go off and drop 40.

James Harden- The Thunder have no current plans of starting Harden over Thabo Sefolosha, but that doesn’t mean they won’t consider it at some point this season. Harden is my candidate for the sixth man award if he comes off the bench. I expect His ppg to jump into the upper teens and a slight rise in assists and boards.

Shannon Brown- As an explosive role player for the Lakers Brown was very productive. Now he is joining Steve Nash’s Suns and contending for a starting gig. Something special may be rising in Phoenix.

Wesely Matthews- With Brandon Roy now retired I don’t expect the Blazers to miss a beat. Two words: Wesely Matthews.

Tyreke Evans: Tyreke won the ROY and then fell off quite a bit last season. I think that was just a sophomore slump and expect his best season yet.

DeMar DeRozan- A lock for 20 ppg this year. Fortunate for Raptor fans, you have a budding star.

Mr. Consistant-

Ray Allen- It’s probably time to start getting concerned with what Ray has left in the tank. Fortunately, the three-point king still has his shot and that should allow him to put up a solid 15 per game this year. Added with a few rebounds, assists and an occasional 30-40 point game and you have yourself a reliable fantasy starter.

Jason Terry- Terry was huge for the Mavs in last years title run and should continue to play a role in their efforts to repeat. The Mavs count on him to add a spark off the bench, you can count on him in your fantasy lineup.

Nick Young- Nick Young is going to average 20-25 points per game this year. And aside from a rebound and an assist here or there, that’s about all you should expect. Luckily, his scoring output is good enough to make him a solid fantasy contributor night in and night out.

Arron Afflalo- Afflalo is expected to resign in Denver and become a key part of their rebuilding process. He has always served his teams as a quality backup, I expect his increased floor time to add up to 15-5-5 from him this season.

Purgatory-

Vince Carter- Orlando gave up on Vinsanity and Phoenix quickly followed suit. Now we find the former dunk champion in Dallas surrounded by other quality vets. There is a chance remains well rested by only being given a handful of minutes. There is also a chance he is washed up.

Ben Gordon- To say Gordon had a lackluster performance last season is an understatement. Will he bounce back?

Paul George- Indiana is looking like a young team poised to cause trouble in the East and Paul George is a reason why. If he is given the minutes and continues from where he left off last year, he could evolve into a special player this season.

Anthony Morrow- When he was on the court Morrow was streaky at times, stringing a few 20-point games together. He was also injured for a good bit of the season. If he can stay healthy, being paired with D-Will is probably going to be a good thing for Morrow.

Jason Richardson- I think he still has some left in the tank, but right now Orlando doesn’t smell right to me and J-Rich just signed an extension. Oops.

Daniel Gibson- Boobey has shown the world he can score over the years. The problem is that he is often times given inconsistent minutes or becomes inconsistent himself. With the Cavs in rebuilding mode, Boobey could wind up seeing valuable minutes.

Marcus Thornton- Marcus is a future 20-point player. My concern is with the amount of minutes he will get in Sacramento. It’s looking like there won’t be enough to go around.

Too Soon To Tell-

Rip Hamilton- Rip is a big pickup for the Bulls. More than likely it’s a pickup that has more of an effect in the playoffs. If Brewer/Krover/Bogans are stealing minutes for defensive or sharpshooter purposes, Rip’s fantasy value will dwindle.

Rudy Fernandez/Corey Brewer- With some of Denver’s piece’s stuck in China, both Rudy and Brewer could wind up seeing valuable minutes in the Mile High City.

Chauncey Billups- He’s getting a fresh start in Clipperland and playing along Chris Paul and Blake Griffen. If he’s motivated to lead them to a potential title run, he’ll produce, but there is a chance father time has a larger say than he does.

OJ Mayo- Mayo had a bit of a rough season last year. Got into a fight with Tony Allen and lost a lot of playing time. If he is given the minutes and gels with his teammates he could be relevant to your fantasy team.

DeShawn Stevenson- The LeBronStopper might actually find quality minutes this year. He’s a risk, but one that could pay off handsomely.

Michael Redd- Yes, that Michael Redd. It feels like he has been injured for an eternity and can’t seem to catch a break, but if he finds a way to get healthy and can even grasp an ounce of his old game, he is worth picking up for your team.

Mike Dunleavy/Carlos Delfino- Both players will have solid stats, the question is, with the two of them sharing minutes in Milwaukee, will either of them be consistent enough to be fantasy worthy.

Landry Fields- Fields showed some signs of greatness in the Big Apple last year. I expect only a slight improvement in his game now, but in two or three we better start watching out for this kid.

Evan Turner/Jodi Meeks- Turner needs to mature and Meeks needs minutes. I expect the Sixers to still be invested in their number two pick, which will hurt Meeks’ value, but may improve Turner in the long run.

Jamal Crawford- Crawford was huge for the Hawks last year. Now he is with the Blazers. I’m uncertain though if his game translates seamlessly to the west coast or not.

Mid-Season Upside-

Tracy McGrady- T-Mac is probably washed up. But somehow or another he had a few games for Detroit last year where he filled the stat sheet and became relevant to fantasy owners. There’s always a chance he does that again in Atlanta this year.

J.R. Smith- China.

Klay Thompson- Thompson could see some valuable time on the court if Monta Ellis gets traded.

Xavier Henry- He showed some flashes when he stole time from Mayo last year. If he’s given the opportunity again, he won’t disappoint.

Gerald Henderson- There is going to be a youth movement in Charlotte as the Bobcats attempt to build through the draft. If Henderson keeps developing he could turn into a solid start come midseason.

Mid-Season Downside-

Anthony Parker- Parker is going to slowly lose minutes as the season moves along in Cleveland. Not that he was going to produce much to begin with.

Washed-Up-

Josh Childress- Probably one of the worst free agents signings in recent memory. He will do nothing in Phoenix.

Raja Bell- Bell will get lost in the mix as the Jazz go full throttle on their rebuilding process. 

Fantasy Guide: Point Guards

Check out the Fantasy Primer
Part 2: Shooting Guards
Part 3: Small Forwards

Part 4: Power Forwards
Part 5: Centers

Will CP3 help the Clippers own L.A.?

Can D-Rose repeat as MVP? 

Point Guards:

            Many leagues place a lot of value on assists. Usually two points per. This can add a lot of value to a player whom, if you were a real GM, you probably wouldn’t want to build a team around. But in the world of fantasy this can turn a real life dud into an almost-stud. An example, try Jose Calderon. Plays for a non-contender with little upside and not surrounded by a lot of talent. Not the first place you are looking for a 3^rd/4^th guard or a flex player. But, if you look at his stats from last year (9.8 ppg/8.9 apg/3 rpg/1.2spg/2.1tpg) you can expect around 29 fantasy points per start. So if in the late mid to late rounds of your draft you find yourself increasingly tempted to jump on the uncertainties of Kyrie Irving, take a look around and make sure that a 25-30 point lock, such as Calderon, isn’t hanging around too.

Superstars-

Derek Rose: The reigning MVP will have a lot to live up to and I expect him to deliver. Perhaps he only replicates last season, but something tells me he finds another gear and improves his shot. At worst he takes a minor step back, which is still a step ahead of most of the league.

Chris Paul: Will the duo of Paul and Griffin turn L.A. into Lob City? Will he stay in one peace? Paul could be poised to have his best season yet and turns the Clippers into an instant contender. He had a great season last year while not surrounded by much. Now he has talent around him. Enough said.

Deron Williams: A 20ppg/10apg player no matter who he is playing with, even if he is with the soon to be Brooklyn Nets. And who knows, Dwight may be on his way up the coast as well.

Russell Westbrook: Sources say there may be some alpha dog issues in the OKC locker room. The stat sheet will agree.

Automatics-

Rajon Rondo- Trade rumors aside, Rondo is an assist machine and will pull down a handful of triple-doubles this year. An underrated fantasy player and in my opinion, should be the first Celtic off the board.

Steve Nash- Despite his age, Steve Nash is still one of the leagues top point guards. He led the league in assists last year. He might not do that again, but he’ll be close for a few more years. Oh, and he also scores about 15 per game.

John Wall- It can be easy to label Wall for a breakout season, but I still think he has a year or two to go before that happens. When it does though it will be a near-MVP caliber leap. You can consider him an Automatic 20 ppg/9 apg candidate in his sophomore campaign.

Stephen Curry- 18-6-4-2. Points, assists, boards and steals, every night for two years straight. The trend will continue and Curry has the potential for a 20-6-5 season.

Breakouts/Fantasy Grenades-

Ty Lawson- Denver is hardly going to miss a beat after the Carmelo trade thanks to Lawson’s rise this year. I expect at least 15 and 7, if not more.

Brandon Jennings- If Brandon Jennings is going to rise to the next level, this is going to be the year we start to see it.

Mike Conely- Conely finally showed signs of being a quality point guard last year and led a promising young Grizzlies team to a second round game 7. His stats have improved each of his four years in the league. Who’s to say they don’t again.

Rodney Stuckey- Stuckey feuded with his coaches a bit last year, but with a new contract I expect the bickering to settle and his stats to rise.

Tyreke Evans- It’s unsure of if Tyreke will be starting at PG or SG this year. Regardless, he’s going to be starting. After taking a step back in his sophomore season, I expect Evans to have his best season yet this year on what could be a talented young Kings team.

Mr. Consistent-

Jason Kidd- Though he hasn’t aged quite as well as Steve Nash, Kidd is a stat sheet stuffer who can still pull down a triple double. Expect 8 ppg/8 apg  out of him this season

Tony Parker- As long as he stays healthy, I expect Parker to continue to float around 17 and 7.

Jrue Holiday- Holiday made a big leap from his rookie to sophomore season. A lot of that can be contributed to more minutes though. I say he sticks around the 14/7/4 area for one more year before breaking out next year.

Devin Harris- The mid-season adjustment was a tad shaky for Harris and it showed in his stats. Now that he is grounded though, expect him to drop 17 and 8.

Raymond Felton- He flourished in Mike D’Antoni’s system but now he is in Portland. Hopefully he doesn’t fall victim to any curses and blows out a knee. With Brandon Roy retiring, I expect Felton to match his production in NYC.

Jose Calerdon- A sneaky good fantasy player as stated in our Point Guard introduction.

Purgatory-

Kyle Lowry- Lowry saw increased minutes in Houston last season and it showed in his stats. Hopefully he can show some consistency and continue the 13/6/4 production.

Darren Collison- Hopefully Collison can take advantage of David West’s arrival. West is a solid low-post shooter and could add an assist or two to Collison’s average.

Tony Douglas/Baron Davis- Tony has shown some promise his first two years. But if a healthy Baron shows up in NYC there won’t be enough minutes to go around for the both of them to shine.

Jameer Nelson- Nelson has been a solid fantasy guard the past couple of years but at the same time, he has also hit a wall of sorts. With Dwight Howard possibly on the move I sense a potential drop in production from Nelson, who may find himself and his teammates unmotivated.

Beno Udrih- Beno has shown he can fill the stat sheet when given the minutes. He’s on a new team now and his production will rely on how his minutes are split with Brandon Jennings.

Too Soon To Tell-

Kyrie Irving- The number one pick from the 2011 draft will have a lot of pressure on him to produce but not much help from the talent surrounding him. Considering he is a part of what seems to be a weak draft class, I’ll be sold on Irving when I see him get a few games under his belt.

Ricky Rubio/Luke Ridnhour/JJ Barea- Perhaps David Kahn needed just one more point guard. Perhaps he is going to start an all-point guard team. Or maybe he saw Barea guard LeBron in the finals and mistook him for a small forward. Regardless, it will be interesting to see how the minutes are dished out in Minnesota this year. From the looks of the preseason though, Rubio is looking like the leading candidate.

Jimmer Fredette- Similar to the Rubio situation, I find it hard to figure out where Jimmer will find minutes in Sacramento.

Gilbert Arenas- He wasn’t very effective last year and Orlando gave him the amnesty. Perhaps a change of scenery gives Gil a boost.

Andre Miller- With Ty Lawson in charge, Miller’s production is an unknown.

Mid-Season Upside-

Jarrett Jack- A solid player who may have just landed in the perfect situation in New Orleans. With Chris Paul gone Jack will be running the show. It may take a few weeks to get going, but paired with Eric Gordon, Jack could be a surprise player this year.

Norris Cole- He won’t have the starting job this season. But word from the Heat camp is that he has impressed thus far. With Mario Chalmers lacking consistency, if Cole can prove his worth, he may find his way to a starting role next to LeBron, Wade and Bosh. Assist please.

Jeff Teague- Teague really turned it on in the playoffs this past year and probably landed the starting give in Atlanta. That being said, I say it takes him a bit to find a regular season groove.

Avery Bradley- No, there is no chance that he finds a way to steal minutes from Rondo, but if the trade rumors turn into reality and Boston starts its rebuilding process. Bradley could benefit from a starting gig mid-season.

Kemba Walker- D.J. Augustin was the starter last season and I expect him to start this year as well. I have a feeling thought the MJ is hot on Kemba and wants to see him take the reigns ASAP.

Mo Williams/Eric Bledsoe- Chris Paul heading to the Clips was bad news for both Williams and Bledsoe. But, if Paul goes down with an injury one of these two will gain some playing time on a loaded and talented young team.

Jerryd Bayless- Bayless has shown flashes of talent in the past and if Jose Calderon were to get injured, Bayless could wind up putting up big numbers in Toronto.

Mid-Season Downside-

Ramon Sessions- He’ll be battling for the starting gig with Kyrie Irving at the start of the year. By the end of it he will have handed the spot over to the top pick in the draft.

Mario Chalmers- He just got an extension, but if he doesn’t produce he has to worry about the rookie Norris Cole taking minutes off the bench.

D.J. Augustin- If Kemba shows up to play, D.J. will lose.

Washed Up-

Derek Fisher- A name you recognize but a name you should avoid.

Mike Bibby- Hobbling for a ring.

Kirk Hinrich- Aging vet recovering from an injury. Expect him to come back slowly.