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In previous years we knew what was coming. We knew Kobe would take the Lakers on another run. We knew Boston would have a shot at a couple of titles with their new “Big 3.” We knew the Spurs were always a threat and that a defensively dominant team, like the Detroit Pistons of yore, could rise to the top on any given year. But now, in the wake of the NBA lockout and the signing of the new CBA, the outlook of the league is one of uncertainty. Will we finally see David overthrow Goliath?There were glimpses of this sea change in playoffs this past year. We watched in disbelief as the number one seeded Spurs were overthrown by the eighth seeded Grizzlies. The feeling that something wasn’t quite right in Orlando was confirmed when Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard and the Magic were dismantled by the Atlanta Hawks. Chris Paul and the Hornets nearly ousted Kobe’s Lakers, whom were then swept in the next round by the Dirk led Mavs. We witnessed LeBron finally overcome the Celtics with the help of Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh and then go on to make the Finals after handling MVP Derrick Rose and the Bulls. The youth movement in Oklahoma also made a showing, narrowly losing in the Western Conference Finals. All of this, somehow, set up a revenge match of the 2006 Finals, with Dirk and the Mavs looking to take back a title that was all but sealed up for them five years ago. But just as we were certain that the Big 3 in Miami would be crowned in their inaugural season and Dirk would once again come up short, we were shocked to find LeBron disappear from the fourth quarter and lose again in his second Finals appearance. And though the question of whether or not there will be a season has been answered, for once, in a league where the perennial outcome is almost always certain, we now have not a clue of what is to come.
The questions keep mounting. Does Kobe have anything left? Is LeBron who we think he is? Has father time caught up to the Spurs and the Celtics? Can a young draft-built troop in Oklahoma prove other small market owners wrong? Were the Grizzlies a fluke? Will the Lakers or the Clippers own L.A.? Where will the likes of Dwight Howard and Deron Williams wind up? Can the newly relevant Knicks contend for a championship? Will a 66-game season, played in a 120 days or so, have a dramatic affect on the health of veteran players?
In a similar sense, the upcoming fantasy season is just as uncertain. Veterans, whom in the past were reliable year in and year out, will become less consistent. It will be harder to pin down the up and comers. Success will come from weighing risk versus reward. Because of this I have set up my fantasy player rankings not necessarily based on what round you should draft a player in, but what kind of season we can expect from each player based on the current makeup of the league. During your draft this year you’ll be forced to cross your fingers on some old vets, take risks on some unknowns and draft as if you were buying stocks; diversify. The rankings break down into nine categories:
Superstars- These are the MVP candidates, players good enough to win your league.
Automatics- Players you can expect top-level production from, on the cusp of superstardom.
Breakouts and Fantasy Grenades- Players poised to have a breakout year and/or can go off for a few games and secure a few regular season wins.
Mr. Consistent- Look at the stat sheet. Nothing too fancy, but you’ll get what you see.
Purgatory- Players who are going to produce something, but it’s hard to tell what that something is.
Too Soon To Tell- Players with upside whom, due to their circumstances, may or may not deliver.
Mid-season Upside- Players who could gain value as the season goes on due to increased playing time, an injury or from gelling with new teammates.
Mid-season Downside- Players who could lose minutes to younger players as the season moves forward.
Washed Up- Mostly veterans with names you recognize that you should more than likely stay away from, even if they receive valuable minutes.
