Mid-Season Review Part 2: MVP Race

No headaches for LeBron and the Heat this season. 

Note: With teams now approaching the 33-game, we will be taking this week to do a mid-season review. Stay tuned for analysis of the standings, MVP, ROY, DPOY, MIP, 6^th Man and more.

Mid-Season Review Part 1: Where We Sand- A look at the NBA Standings
Mid-Season Review Part 3: Rookie of the Year-What will become of this year's class?

            The lockout has caused the MVP race to be somewhat of a rollercoaster ride. We’ve seen a handful of consistent candidates including LeBron, Durant, Kobe and Rose, but also a few wild cards, such as Kevin Love and Chris Paul. Where they rank as MVPs has largely depended on what week you look at them. More recently there have been a few players playing themselves into shape and thus, playing themselves back into the MVP discussion.

MVP Update (2/3): Chris Paul Enters the Discussion

Chris Paul doesn't take head taps lightly. 

In previous weeks it has been noted that this year’s MVP award is a four-man race between LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant and Derrick Rose. LeBron has been putting on an efficiency showdown and is having one of the best statistical seasons in NBA history. Kevin Durant is leading the Thunder to the best record in the league while grabbing more rebounds. Kobe has gotten back to being Kobe by leading the league in scoring and fighting for ownership of the Staples Center with the Clippers. And then there is Derrick Rose, who is doing whatever it takes to keep the Bulls atop the Eastern Conference[1]. But this week a fifth man enters the discussion. I bring to your attention, Mr. Chris Paul.

MVP Update (1/27): All Manu Ginobili's Aside

Dwyane Wade's injury has cleared the way for LeBron to win his third MVP award.

There is just too much teamwork going on in the NBA right now to have a clear-cut MVP. LeBron has been playing at an elite level without Dwyane Wade, but Chris Bosh has stepped his game up to an elite level as well. Kevin Durant has the Thunder on a tear, winning ten of their last eleven games, but he is backed by the highly productive Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Kobe Bryant, clearly the alpha dog of the Lakers, was doing everything he could to win games (and was winning them,) dropping 40-plus in four straight, then he decided to play more team oriented ball and the Lakers have lost four of six. Derrick Rose missed four straight games and the Bulls won three of them handily. In the two games since he has returned the Bulls beat the Nets and then lost to the Pacers at home for the Bulls’ first home loss. And as we’ve stated in previous MVP rankings, outside of these four players, nobody really has a shot at the award.

MVP Update (1/20): Consistency is Key

It takes two to tango, but LeBron looks to be a step ahead of Kobe at the moment. 

            I know it’s early in the season, but so far the MVP race has been a wild game of musical chairs, more specifically, the top four spots in my rankings. At this point, barring some wild chain of events[1] the award is going to be won by four candidates, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Derrick Rose or Kevin Durant. Outside of those four players nobody really has a shot. But within this selected group of elite players, each one has made their case, both for and against, winning this year’s award.

Friday MVP Update: Most Valuable Mamba

Kobe found his ups again...look out NBA.
      

           The Black Mamba strikes again. As stated in yesterday’s column, Kobe has managed to find the fountain of youth. Somehow he has harnessed physical abilities that he hasn’t had in years and as always, with another year under his belt comes another year of basketball knowledge to use at his disposal amongst his youthful, inexperienced peers. All this praise and I’m not even a fan of Kobe. That’s how impressive Kobe has been after the first twelve games of the season.

Friday MVP Update (1/6)

LeBron has risen once again and the Heat are following his lead. 

            

           If it was last Thursday when Kevin Durant nailed a game winning three to beat the defending champion Mavs, I would of told you he was the MVP. If it was last Friday, I would have said Derrick Rose’s 29 point, 8 rebound, 16 assist dismantling of the Clippers had put him as the frontrunner. And then there is LeBron James, who is making a case to be the top dog of not only the league but also the Heat.

Week In Review: Goliath Stumbles, Wolves on the Rise

Through the draft, the Wolves have slowly assembled a Big Three to be reckoned with.

            

          Oh, how the mighty have fallen stumbled. After a little over a week of regular season action the defending champion Dallas Mavericks(1-4) find themselves at the bottom of the Southwest Division. The Lakers (3-3) lost their Christmas Day opener on a last second shot by Derrick Rose and after starting the season with consecutive loses have leveled out. And though every year looks to be the year age catches up to the Boston Celtics (2-3,) their three losses to start the season, followed by two unimpressive wins over the lowly Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards look to be a bad omen.

Fantasy Guide: Power Forwards

Check out the Fantasy Primer

Part 1: Point Guards

Part 2: Shooting Guards

Part 3: Small Forwards
Part 5: Centers

Expect Blake to keep doing Blake things this year. 

            In fantasy terms the power forward position has always been somewhat of a conundrum.  Most power forwards aren’t the best at accruing assists and they don’t necessarily bring in the 10-plus boards we expect from a solid center. Suddenly that has changed. Now the position boasts a handful of players who can drop 20 points, 10 boards and 3-4 assists a night. Make sure you grab at least one of these guys for your team.

Superstars-

Dirk Nowitzki-  Dirk is coming off of his first finals victory, but because of the lockout the Mavs don’t seem to have much of a target on their back. Assuming he can stay healthy through this gauntlet of a season, I say the lack of attention motivates Dirk towards another MVP-like season.

Blake Griffin- A serious threat for the MVP and regardless of that fact, he is playing along Chris Paul this year. Blake is also sneaky good at dishing out assists.

Kevin Love- Love broke out last year and wound up leading the league in rebounds. He’s still young and in great shape. Towards the end of the season he will be running circles around the vets in the league. Oh, and with Rubio finally showing up in Minny, there may be something special brewing.

LaMarcus Aldridge- After Brandon Roy went down last year, Aldridge went off. This year he could be a potential MVP candidate. He’s a solid 20-10 guy on a fun Blazers team.

Automatics-

Pau Gasol- Age is going to start slowing Pau down sooner or later and some believe it already has. Something about the Lakers also seem off to me this season and I think that effects his production. That being said, he’s still going to have a solid season.

Amare Stoudemire- Amare started last season on fire and was looking like a top candidate for MVP. Then his production tailed off a bit and Carmelo showed up. In the up-tempo Knicks offense though he is still going to have a great year.

Davis Lee- Perhaps he is a bit overpaid in Golden State but he is still going to drop 17 and 10 each night.

Zach Randolph- Randolph has been a 20-10 guy for years now and for some reason is perennially underrated because of his past attitude issues. He went off in the playoffs this year and now he should be a hot pickup.

Breakouts/Fantasy Grenades-

Chris Bosh- I say Bosh is a candidate for a slight breakout and being a fantasy grenade. He won’t ever return to his Toronto form while playing alongside LeBron and Wade, but I expect him to get back to grabbing 10-boards a night and occasionally going off for 30-40 points.

Josh Smith- Smith is a stat-sheet filler who could be poised for a leap this year. At the least your getting 18 and 9 coupled with 3-4 assists and 2 blocks a game.

Serge Ibaka- If Ibaka breaks out this year the league better watch out for the Thunder. I think he is going to break out.

Emeka Okafor- Okafor went from being a disappointment to being a solid role player. Now with Chris Paul being traded out of New Orleans there is a void to fill. He could have his best season yet.

Andre Blatche- I would not want Blatche if I were running a real life basketball team, but for some reason, Blatche is a fantasy beast from time to time. This year I think that becomes more consistent and he has his best season yet.

Mr. Consistent-

Kevin Garnett- Age has definitely slowed KG down. If he can stay healthy you can expect 17-8 from him every night.

Tim Duncan- The greatest power forward of all-time saw a major drop in production last season. This year I think we can expect exactly what we saw out of Duncan last year.

Paul Millsap- A couple of years ago Millsap got a chance to play quality minutes for the Jazz and worked his way into a starting job. Now he is a solid 17-8 guy.

Elton Brand- He is a shell of his younger self, but still a solid 15-8 player.

Luis Scola- An underrated player year in and year out. An 18-8 guy who throws in a couple of assists a night too.

Carlos Boozer- I’m not much of a Boozer fan and after his performance in the Conference Finals last year I doubt many Chicago fans are either. If he stays healthy and builds more chemistry with D-Rose he could return to his 20-10 form, but realistically I see him at 17-8.

David West- Coming off ACL surgery, West is a bit of a mystery. We will shortly learn how well he responds and if he can hold up. That being said, the Pacers are only asking him to be their number 2 or 3 guy, making West a consistent fantasy producer.

Purgatory-

Tyrus Thomas/Boris Diaw- Charlotte is becoming a joke and hardly resembles a basketball team. When Tyrus gets minutes he can produce, but for some reason doesn’t get a lot of minutes with the Bobcats. Boris Diaw can fill the stat sheet, but he is playing on the Bobcats and might wind up being their starting center. Oy vey.

JJ Hickson- It feels like the Kings have about 50 players on their team who are all capable of having fantasy-relevant seasons. The only problem is that there just aren’t enough minutes for all of these players. Hickson will only be as productive as the amount of minutes he is given.

Charlie Villanueva- Three years ago Charlie went 16 and 6 and was a decent fantasy option. Since he has moved to Detroit he has been a disappointment. We will see what we get out of him this year.

Antawn Jamison- Even though he probably has something left in the tank and he had solid numbers last year, Jamison is still playing for the basketball team formerly known as the LeBrons. He could be due for a very bad year.

Chris Kaman- He just got traded to New Orleans in the Chris Paul deal and usually does exactly the opposite of what you expect of him. I expected him to stay in all-star form last year and he did not. I now expect him to fill a void in New Orleans and have a quality year. Which probably means he will not.

Carl Landry- Landry is a solid glue guy who can go for 10-15 points a night. A few years ago he was in reach of 20 a game. Now he is in New Orleans on a team lacking any identity. Who knows what we will get.

Too Soon To Tell-

Udonis Haslem- Haslem is a beast of a player and more of a role player on a stacked Heat team. He is going to get minutes but I feel uncertain about what exactly we should expect from him statistically this year.

Glen Davis/Ryan Anderson- Both of these guys could experience a garbage-time season and put up some unrealistically awesome fantasy numbers if Dwight Howard gets traded mid-season. If he doesn’t get traded they stay right where they were last year.

Mid-Season Upside-

Tristan Thompson- I don’t think Thompson produces right out the gate, but after he gets a month or two under his belt, we will see if he was worth the fourth overall pick in the draft.

Kenneth Faried- Faried will be fighting for minutes this season. He will be a special player one day, just maybe not this season.

Al-Farouq Aminu- Unfortunately for Aminu he got traded out of playing with Blake Griffin. But fortunately this may result in more minutes and a chance for him to turn into something special. It may take him a bit to get going, but if he finds a groove mid-season he is going to be good.

Ed Davis- Davis had a decent rookie campaign last year. He needs to get more minutes though and as the season goes on I expect the Raptors to unleash him a bit more.

Derrick Favors- I don’t really trust Favors to prove his 3^rd-pick worthiness and it certainly won’t happen this year. But, come mid-season he may start to produce stats that could validate a spot for him on your fantasy team.

Tyler Hansbrough- Psycho Ty improved last year from his rookie campaign. He is on a fun, upstart Pacers team and could earn himself enough minutes to become a 15-7 player.

Taj Gibson- Gibson saw a dip in minutes last year and it caused his numbers to drop too. If he can steal minutes from Boozer and Noah he could breech 10 points per game and grab a few more boards than last year. It’s going to take him half the year to prove he is worth it though.

Brandon Bass- He just got traded to the Celtics and is going to see quality minutes. I saw it takes him a bit to gel with the group and by mid-season could be a 15-6 player.

Reggie Williams- Williams lost minutes last season after having a very impressive rookie campaign. If he can earn those minutes back by mid-season he will be a beast.

Jonas Jerebko- Jerebko had a decent season last year and is playing on a rebuilding Pistons team. If he can find the minutes he could become a valuable 3^rd or 4^th forward on your fantasy team.

Mid-Season Downside-

Al Harrington- Harrington saw a major drop in production last year and is slated to see another drop as his younger counterparts steal minutes from him and his teammates trapped in China return.

Drew Gooden- I don’t trust Gooden that much and I think the gauntlet season is going to do him in at some point.

Amir Johnson- Johnson will lose minutes to Ed Davis as the season moves on, simply for the fact that Ed Davis has potential and Johnson is overpaid.

Washed Up-

Johan Petro- Never was any good to begin with and doesn’t look to be getting better any time soon.