MVP Update (2/3): Chris Paul Enters the Discussion

Chris Paul doesn't take head taps lightly. 

In previous weeks it has been noted that this year’s MVP award is a four-man race between LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant and Derrick Rose. LeBron has been putting on an efficiency showdown and is having one of the best statistical seasons in NBA history. Kevin Durant is leading the Thunder to the best record in the league while grabbing more rebounds. Kobe has gotten back to being Kobe by leading the league in scoring and fighting for ownership of the Staples Center with the Clippers. And then there is Derrick Rose, who is doing whatever it takes to keep the Bulls atop the Eastern Conference[1]. But this week a fifth man enters the discussion. I bring to your attention, Mr. Chris Paul.

MVP Update (1/27): All Manu Ginobili's Aside

Dwyane Wade's injury has cleared the way for LeBron to win his third MVP award.

There is just too much teamwork going on in the NBA right now to have a clear-cut MVP. LeBron has been playing at an elite level without Dwyane Wade, but Chris Bosh has stepped his game up to an elite level as well. Kevin Durant has the Thunder on a tear, winning ten of their last eleven games, but he is backed by the highly productive Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Kobe Bryant, clearly the alpha dog of the Lakers, was doing everything he could to win games (and was winning them,) dropping 40-plus in four straight, then he decided to play more team oriented ball and the Lakers have lost four of six. Derrick Rose missed four straight games and the Bulls won three of them handily. In the two games since he has returned the Bulls beat the Nets and then lost to the Pacers at home for the Bulls’ first home loss. And as we’ve stated in previous MVP rankings, outside of these four players, nobody really has a shot at the award.

Under the Radar: "He Who Must Not Be Named"

Voldemort also known as "He Who Must Not Be Named" and "The Dark Lord"

Chris Bosh, bearing a slight resemblance to "He Who Must Not Be Named"/"The Dark Lord"

            Just like LeBron James, Chris Bosh took his talents to South Beach last season to team up with Dwyane Wade. A season that was plagued with a 9-win, 8-loss start, a 5-game losing streak, a non-stop barrage from the media and what wound up being a collapse in the NBA Finals at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks. For James and Wade, the debate between sports pundits and fans rallied around which player was the Batman or Robin of the Miami Heat. As for Bosh, he was continually referred to as “soft” for not putting up the same numbers as he did in Toronto[1]. The criticism was dealt out by even the most casual of fans, my girlfriend being one of them, who, during one game mid-season noticed that Bosh bares a slight resemblance to Lord Voldemort from the Harry Potter series. And in a sense, as we enter the second season of the big experiment in South Beach, Bosh has become “He Who Must Not Be Named.”[2]

MVP Update (1/20): Consistency is Key

It takes two to tango, but LeBron looks to be a step ahead of Kobe at the moment. 

            I know it’s early in the season, but so far the MVP race has been a wild game of musical chairs, more specifically, the top four spots in my rankings. At this point, barring some wild chain of events[1] the award is going to be won by four candidates, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Derrick Rose or Kevin Durant. Outside of those four players nobody really has a shot. But within this selected group of elite players, each one has made their case, both for and against, winning this year’s award.

Friday MVP Update: Most Valuable Mamba

Kobe found his ups again...look out NBA.
      

           The Black Mamba strikes again. As stated in yesterday’s column, Kobe has managed to find the fountain of youth. Somehow he has harnessed physical abilities that he hasn’t had in years and as always, with another year under his belt comes another year of basketball knowledge to use at his disposal amongst his youthful, inexperienced peers. All this praise and I’m not even a fan of Kobe. That’s how impressive Kobe has been after the first twelve games of the season.

Friday MVP Update (1/6)

LeBron has risen once again and the Heat are following his lead. 

            

           If it was last Thursday when Kevin Durant nailed a game winning three to beat the defending champion Mavs, I would of told you he was the MVP. If it was last Friday, I would have said Derrick Rose’s 29 point, 8 rebound, 16 assist dismantling of the Clippers had put him as the frontrunner. And then there is LeBron James, who is making a case to be the top dog of not only the league but also the Heat.

2011-12 Playoff Predictions

Also check out:

Season Preview

MVP Predictions

Durant and Co. will have troubling getting around LeBron and the Heat in the Finals.

           Last season ended how we thought it would. It wasn’t out of our expectations to see Derrick Rose lead the Bulls to the best record in the league. Nor was it odd to see the aging Spurs lead the pack in the West or the Celtics, Heat, Lakers and Thunder round out the six division winners. Many people had these teams pegged as their division winners at the start of the season. But come playoff time it was a whole different story.

            The number one seeded Spurs exited in the first round, the Lakers had a tough run-in with the Hornets and were eventually swept by the Mavs and the Orlando Magic had a first round exit at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks. The most surprising team of all, the Memphis Grizzlies, a team that had barely made it into the playoffs, nearly made it to the Western Conference Finals, falling one game short in Game 7 to the Oklahoma City Thunder. By the end of the second round the Lakers, Celtics, Magic and Spurs, teams that had been in the Finals the previous four seasons, were all knocked out of the playoffs.

            Last year may have been a bad omen for those teams. This year I expect all four of them to trickle down the standings and seed in the lower half of the bracket. Making room for teams with fresher legs that either kept their core together or made important offseason acquisitions. Teams such as the Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, L.A. Clippers, Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies will be in position again to make some noise come playoff time.

Eastern Conference

Round 1:

(1)Miami Heat vs. (8) Milwaukee Bucks

            It took Miami most of last year to work out the kinks in its schemes and they still managed to make the Finals and probably should have won the title. With a year under their belt I think they easily walk away with the number one seed. As for Milwaukee, the Bucks will have a healthy Andrew Bogut to team up with Brandon Jennings and newly acquired Stephen Jackson. That should be enough for them to make it into the playoffs, but it will be an early exit. Miami in 4.

(4) Indiana Pacers vs. (5) Boston Celtics

            Indiana is going to make life tough for many teams this year. They feature a great frontcourt in Roy Hibbert, ex-Hornet David West and backup Tyler Hansbrough, a solid set of wing players in Danny Granger and Paul George, and a point guard who can manage the game in Darren Collison. Boston features Rajon Rondo. The rest is becoming fan fodder. Garnett, Pierce and Allen are all still valuable when healthy and at full strength, but by they end of the season I doubt all three of them are in that condition. Plus, the Celtics have nodda when it comes to depth this year. This is the year the Pacers breakout. Pacers in 6.

(3) New York Knicks vs. (6) Atlanta Hawks

            The Knicks could be dangerous this season if Tyson Chandler can play defense for all five players on the court at the same time. All joking aside, his presence makes a difference and also makes the Knicks a legit title threat. Atlanta won’t surprise us again like they did last year by pulling the upset. I think the Hawks make their way into the six seed due to a Dwight Howard trade or chemistry collapse in Orlando. Either way, they benefit. Knicks in 5.

(2) Chicago Bulls vs (7) Orlando Magic

            Potentially could be a trap series for the Bulls if the Magic wind up keeping Howard and making a solid move at the trade deadline. The season ends on April 26^th this year and the trade deadline is March 15^th. That would give Orlando just enough time to get things together and make things interesting. The Bulls on the other hand might find themselves a bit over confident after making it to the Conference Finals last year. Still, I think they find a way. Bulls in 7.

Round 2:

(1) Miami Heat vs. (4) Indiana Pacers

            This is going to be a tougher series for Miami than anyone will realize until they actually play the first game. The Pacers have a size advantage on Miami that will cause a lot of trouble for LeBron and Wade as it did for Rose in the first round of last year’s playoffs. Talent wins out here though. Miami in 6.

(2) Chicago Bulls vs. (3) New York Knicks

            This series will come down to which team controls the tempo of the game. If the Bulls make this about defense, I think New York suffers. If the Knicks are scoring in 5^th gear, the Bulls don’t have much of a chance. It will come down to the Tyson Chandler affect. Knicks in 7.

Conference Finals:

(1) Miami Heat vs. (3) New York Knicks

            How I would kill for this to become a reality. Conference finals in New York. Wade, LeBron, Melo and Amare feeding off the MSG crowd. Basketball Heaven. The Knicks will have a shot if Chandler can do what he did to Miami in last year’s finals. But Miami will have more determination this time and depth. Miami in 6.

Western Conference

Round 1:

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) L.A. Lakers

            The Lakers are going to get banged up this season and struggle to make it to the playoffs. Oklahoma is going to find their stride. This is a reversal of their first round meeting two seasons ago and this time Durant and co. put the dagger in Lakers. Thunder in 6.

(4) Denver Nuggets vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies

            Denver managed to instantly rebuild when they traded Melo to the Knicks. Ty Lawson is going to have a breakout season this year. Memphis will be equally as good as they were last season, only this time we will all see it coming. The Mile High magic is the difference maker. Denver in 7.

(3) L.A. Clippers vs. (6) Portland Trailblazers

            The Clips are going to easily overthrow the Lakers this season and claim the Pacific crown. The Blazers will manage to effortlessly move past Brandon Roy’s retirement even if Greg Oden doesn’t return. Which gets me to thinking, how good would they be if their franchise wasn’t cursed with bad knees? Clips in 6.

(2) Dallas Mavericks vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs

            Despite the personnel changes Dirk and Kidd will find a way to get the Mavs the second seed in the West. Instead of going for the top seed this year I think the aging Spurs save the energy for the playoffs and settle for a lower seed. Age over beauty. Spurs in 6.

Round 2:

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (4) Denver Nuggets

            This would be a great series to watch. A repeat matchup of the first round from last season, both teams are young and on the rise. Another year under their belts should make this one interesting. Denver can battle. Thunder in 6.

(3) L.A. Clippers vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs

            The Spurs will be able to use their basketball IQ to sneak around the Mavs in the first round, but in the second they will run into a physical juggernaut in the Clippers. Paul, Blake and Jordan will be too much for Duncan and co. to handle. Clips in 6.

Conference Finals:

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (3) L.A. Clippers

            The Clippers picked up Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups and Caron Butler this offseason. I think we learned from Miami last year that these things take time. On the other side of the court, the Thunder were one step away from making it to the Finals last season. This year they make it happen. Thunder in 7.

NBA Finals

(1) Miami Heat vs. (1) Oklahoma City Thunder

            I expect both of these teams to be at the top of the league for most of the next decade. I won’t be surprised if this is the first of many Finals matchups between the two. The next stage will prove to be too much for Durant and Westbrook the first time around. In year two though, I think Miami gets it done with the Big 3. Miami in 6.

Fantasy Guide: Small Forwards

Check out the Fantasy Primer

Part 1: Point Guards

Part 2: Shooting Guards

Part 4: Power Forwards

Part 5: Centers

Something tells me we get this LeBron back this year.

The small forward position is currently home to a handful of stat sheet fillers. Players who score, rebound, and dole out a healthy amount of assists. I recommend you grab a few of these guys for your team. There are the obvious studs, such as LeBron, Carmelo and Durant, but there is also Andre Iguodala, who went 14-6-6 last year. Most people focused on the scoring dip Iguodala had, dropping from 17 a game down to 14, when we actually expected a jump up to 20. But, with 6 assists and 6 boards a night, you can’t go wrong, even if he scores in the teens again.

Superstars-

LeBron James- Even with the transitional issues of teaming up with Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh last year, LeBron still was able to put together an MVP like season going 26-7-7. With a year under their belt, I say the Heat stars find a way to excel at another level. LeBron could easily go for 30-8-8 this year and regain the MVP.

Carmelo Anthony- In the D’Antoni system almost anyone can thrive. Carmelo is already considered one of the purest scorers in the game. I expect a slight jump in his already impressive numbers this year.

Kevin Durant- He keeps getting better every year and has led the league in scoring the past two years. I won’t be surprised to see him lead the league again and make a run at his first MVP award.

Automatics-

Rudy Gay- Gay was having a great season last year until an injury cut his season short. He got to sit on the bench as he watched his teammates beat the number one seed Spurs and push the Thunder to a Game 7 in the second round. I expect him to be hungry this year.

Danny Granger- All of the sudden Granger is surrounded by a strong supported cast in Indiana. This team is going to be dangerous and I expect all of Granger’s numbers to jump slightly.

Paul Pierce- He no longer averages as many points as he did earlier in his career, but he is far from washed up. You can still expect him to score in the upper teens every night and as with most prolific scorers, as the scoring drops off some, the boards and assists usually rise. That’s good news for fantasy owners.

Breakouts/Fantasy Grenades-

Danilo Gallinari- Gallinari was traded out of the high scoring D’Antoni system last year, but now he is a centerpiece in the Denver rebuilding process. I won’t be surprised to see him start scoring in the low 20’s this season.

Dorell Wright- Wright was finally given the proper minutes and it paid off for the Warriors. One might say last year was his breakout year, but something tells me his ceiling could be even higher and he has an even larger breakout this year. Especially if Monta Ellis is traded at some point.

Stephen Jackson- Jackson could easily be considered an automatic, but he has found a new home in Milwaukee and age will be an issue sooner than later. I don’t expect his numbers to drop off too much, but I see him more of a Fantasy Grenade this year. He’ll have a dozen or so games where his numbers are LeBron-esque.

Michael Beasley- He has maturity issues. He has a GM who is collecting point guards and small forwards. He also has game. I don’t care if the wolves took Derrick Williams at number 2; Beasley is going to explode this year.

Mr. Consistent-

Luol Deng- For the past couple of seasons Deng has scored 17 points and grab a few boards. So this year I expect him to show up, score 17 points and grab a few boards.

Andre Iguodala- I mentioned Iggy in the intro paragraph to this section, but for those of you who jumped down, I expect a consistent 15-6-6 night in and night out from the guy. I doubt we’ll see many 30-point games from him this year but it won’t matter much when he’s bringing in all those assists and boards.

Grant Hill- The training staff in Phoenix has added a few years to Hill’s career. He is also playing alongside Steve Nash, another aging star who seems to refuse to lose a step. Expect Hill to score in the teens again with three to four assists and five or four boards a night.

Gerald Wallace- Wallace’s presence in Portland is overshadowed by LaMarcus Aldridge. This might be a good thing. Wallace is a double-double candidate and though he isn’t going to win your league for you, he can be a valuable addition to your fantasy team.

Caron Butler- He’s coming off an injury, but he also just landed in Lob City, teamed next to Paul and Griffin. I think we can expect to do the same thing he has done his whole career. Score 15-20 points a night.

Andrei Kirilenko- AK47 has been as about as consistent a player throughout his career as one can be. A true stat sheet stuffer, he does it all. It looks like he’ll be landing in New Jersey to pair up with his old teammate Deron Williams and the new Russian owner. I say that’s a good thing.

Purgatory-

Corey Maggette- Last year Maggette saw a huge drop off in points dipping from 19 to 12 per game. He also now finds himself in Charlotte with a young group of players. There is a chance he can return to his old form but it’s really only just a chance.

Trevor Ariza- Ariza averaged 14 points per game two years ago and last year saw a bit of a dip. With both Chris Paul and David West now gone, he has the ability to become the Hornets’ second scoring option behind Eric Gordon. This is probably not a good thing for the Hornets, but a good thing for anyone owning Trevor Ariza.

Shawn Marion/Lamar Odom- The Mavs just picked up Odom for just about nothing and out of the two of them I think Odom has more in the tank. The problem is going to be how much playing time each of them will get.

Thaddeus Young- Young has been stuck in neutral for the past two seasons after appearing to break out three years ago when he averaged a career high 15 points per game. He is still only 23, but I question how much more of a ceiling he has.

John Salmons- When he gets enough opportunities Salmons is capable of going for 20 a night. But like many players in Sacramento, it’s hard to judge how many minutes he will get.

Too Soon To Tell-

Omar Casspi- Casspi had a great rookie campaign and then took a slight step back in his sophomore season. Now he finds himself in Cleveland. There should be plenty of playing time for the third year player. Can he take advantage of it?

Jared Dudley- Dudley had his best year yet last season in Phoenix. If he can land the starting role and get a few more minutes a game, he could be good for 15 a night. Could be. I use caution because last year was the first year he broke 10 per game. He could easily fall back below into fantasy irrelevancy.

Wesley Johnson- It’s too bad Wesley isn’t a center or a shooting guard because Minnesota is overloaded at point guard, small forward and power forward. He had a decent rookie campaign, but with so many players in his way, it’s hard to tell how much time he’ll get and if he will be able to improve at all.

Rashard Lewis- The Wiz Kids didn’t amnesty Lewis because it would have forced them to spend money in order to meet the salary cap minimum once they got rid of him. He still remains the most overpaid player in the league and I expect another lackluster performance. But if for some reason he returns to his old form he could be very valuable.

Josh Howard- Howard has been struggling with injuries the past two years and now finds himself playing for a rebuilding Utah. If he can stay healthy he will get minutes and hopefully return to the 18 and 6 player he was in Dallas.

Tayshaun Prince- Prince has been one of the most consistent players in the league averaging 14-3-5 for what seems like an eternity. But this year he turns 31 for a rebuilding Pistons team. Age may soon catch up with Tayshaun.

Chase Budinger- The vetoed trade that kept Pau Gasol from coming to Houston is going to help out a couple of young players. Budinger is one of them but something in my gut is uncertain if he is ready to make a leap.

Mid-Season Upside-

Kawhi Leonard- The Spurs traded up to get Leonard but still hung on to Richard Jefferson. I see Kawhi coming off the bench to start the season and then proving his worth come late February.

Linas Kleiza- Linas is recovering from injury and it’s up in the air as to when he comes back. But when he does he’ll find plenty of minutes in Toronto and could be a special mid-season addition to your team.

Jan Vesely- Vesely is going to be a fun young player with great athletic ability. I don’t expect him to produce right away, but come mid-season he may obtain some value.

Wilson Chandler- Chandler is stuck in China at the moment. When he returns he will have great fantasy value as long as he can find minutes in Denver.

Austin Daye- The third year player saw an increase in minutes last year and an increase in production. If the same thing happens this year he could be a valuable third or fourth forward on your team.

Tony Allen- He threw some punches last year mid-way through the season and wound up having a fairly productive second half when OJ Mayo’s minutes were handed over to him. If Mayo gets traded we could see the same thing happen this year.

Derrick Williams- It’s uncertain whether Williams will play at the three or the four. It’s also uncertain where he will find minutes on an oddly constructed Wolves team. Only time will tell.

Mid-Season Downside-

Richard Jefferson- Jefferson has clearly lost his step and it is also pretty clear that the Spurs plan to replace him with Kawhi Leonard.

Hedo Turkoglu- Hedo has fallen off the past couple of years and I expect the trend to continue.

Washed Up-

Marvin Williams- To call him washed up might be unfair considering he was never much of anything to begin with. I would rather trust someone with upside than a disappointment like Williams.

Metta World Peace/Matt Barnes- If you combined the two of these guys for the Lakers you would have a beast. That being said, both players are being used for mainly defensive purposes and should not be expected to have significant fantasy production by any means.